How to forecast sales from your pipeline
Adding up your open deals gives you a wish, not a forecast. A realistic sales forecast weights every deal by how likely it actually is to close.
Skip the math — the free sales pipeline forecast template runs this from your own figures.
Open the free calculator →Why raw pipeline overstates everything
If you sum the full value of every open deal, you get a number that assumes everything closes. It never does. That inflated figure leads to over-hiring, over-spending, and missed targets when reality lands.
A real forecast starts from the same pipeline but discounts each deal by its probability of closing. The result is smaller, less exciting, and far more useful.
Weight each deal by stage
The simplest reliable method is to assign a win probability to each sales stage — say 20% at discovery, 50% at proposal, 80% at negotiation — and multiply each deal's value by its probability.
A $40,000 deal at the proposal stage contributes $20,000 to the forecast. Sum those weighted values across the pipeline and you have a forecast grounded in where deals actually are, not where you hope they'll go.
Base your probabilities on real history
The best stage probabilities come from your own past conversion rates, not gut feel. Look back at how often deals at each stage actually closed, and use those numbers.
If you don't have history yet, start with sensible estimates and refine them as deals resolve. Even rough, consistently-applied probabilities beat unweighted totals.
Check your pipeline coverage
Coverage is your total open pipeline divided by your target. Because not every deal closes, you typically need several times your target in pipeline — a common rule of thumb is 3x to 4x.
If your coverage is thin, even a good forecast won't save the period — you need more pipeline now. Coverage is the early-warning signal that a target is at risk weeks before the forecast confirms it.
Review and adjust regularly
A forecast is a living number. Update deal stages and values as things move, and watch how the weighted forecast and coverage shift. The discipline of a regular pipeline review is what makes the forecast trustworthy.
The free tool below turns pipeline value, win rate, and target into a weighted forecast and coverage ratio instantly, and the full template tracks every deal by stage and probability.
Questions
What's a realistic win rate to use?
It varies hugely by industry, deal size, and how you define a qualified opportunity — anywhere from single digits to over 50%. The key is to use your own historical close rate rather than a generic figure, and ideally a different probability per stage. If you're just starting, estimate conservatively and refine as real deals close.
How far ahead should I forecast?
Match it to your sales cycle. If deals typically take a month to close, a monthly forecast makes sense; for longer B2B cycles, forecast by quarter. Forecasting much further than your cycle length adds guesswork, because those deals haven't entered the pipeline yet.